How to save Social Security
OUR OPINION: STRONG ECONOMY IS BEST BET
AGAINST COLLAPSE
• Last of a series
The polar extremes of
the debate over Social Security are represented by two diametrically
opposed notions: (1) The system is in crisis and demands a radical
overhaul. (2) It isn't broken, so don't fix it. The case for
comprehensive change, particularly ''personal accounts'' and the
massive debt this would entail, doesn't stand up to close scrutiny.
The case for leaving Social Security alone, however, is not wholly
satisfactory either because the projected gap between revenue and
benefits would make the system insolvent over the long run.
Social Security has managed to deliver universal and enduring
benefits since its inception despite dire threats of long-term
insolvency. This can be attributed to wise political leadership
capable of ensuring the program's fiscal soundness by undertaking
careful planning and modest adjustments.
In the beginning, the payroll tax was set at 2 percent and the
initial ceiling was $3,000 of income. In the ensuing 70 years, the
ceiling has increased 38 times to the current $90,000, and the
payroll tax is 6.2 percent (12.4 percent counting the employer
match). In the mid-80s, a commission led by Alan Greenspan, the
current chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, hiked the retirement
age from 65 to 67. This is still being phased in.
Clearly, preceding generations of Americans have been willing to
make a sacrifice in order to keep Social Security going. It's safe
to say that they didn't like increased taxes or delayed benefits any
more than today's wage-earners do, but they were willing to bite the
bullet. The question is whether today's political leaders and the
voters they answer to have an equal measure of foresight and will
fight to keep the safety net intact for everyone. If the answer is
Yes, many options are available:
• Our preferred solution is
increasing the ceiling on income subject to payroll taxes. Among
other things, it reduces the regressive aspect of the tax. (Only
about 6 percent of Americans earn $90,000 or more a year.) Although
President Bush has ruled this out, by one estimate raising the
ceiling to $200,000 would, by itself, almost eliminate the entire
projected deficit. Increasing the level of the tax above 6.2
percent, which would affect all wage-earners, and employers as well,
is less palatable.
• Delaying the retirement age.
This effective cutback in benefits would reflect longer life
expectancies. Coupled with an increase in the income ceiling, the
preferred option, this could eliminate the projected gap altogether
with only modest changes. A related idea, suggested by Mr. Bush,
would discourage early retirements, another money-saving step.
• Reducing benefits for
wealthy retirees. This undermines the idea of a ''universal''
benefit and puts the burden for fixing the problem on a relatively
small number of the economically active population.
• Altering the way benefits
are measured -- a significant change. Instead of indexing the
increase in future benefits to preretirement earnings, the index
would be tied to inflation -- the increase in consumer prices. This
would reduce benefits because wages tend to rise faster than prices.
In effect, a worker's standard of living would be locked in at an
early stage. Downside: Benefit reductions would be drastic. Upside:
It could produce a surplus over 75 years, instead of the projected
$3.7 trillion deficit.
The best guarantee of prosperity for all Americans -- including
retirees -- is a sound economy. At the moment, a huge deficit and
the increasing foreign debt -- billions owed to China and other
creditors -- pose bigger threats.
Even more alarming was last week's startling news that the
estimated 10-year cost of the Medicare prescription drug program has
risen to $724 billion. This for a benefit that didn't even exist
in law one year ago.
To borrow a phrase from Thomas Jefferson, this is a fire bell in
the night; it makes a mockery of all plans to balance the national
budget. If Congress and the president are searching for what's broke
and needs fixing, they need look no further than the runaway cost of
healthcare. By comparison, Social Security is solid as a rock.