BellSouth doesn't need to buy a long-distance network to
survive and prosper, its chief financial officer said today. In
fact, Ron Dykes told the Bank of America Securities Media,
Telecommunications and Entertainment Conference that shifts in
both consumer choices and network technologies have made owning a
long-distance network much less appealing than other potential
investments.
"If we have a dollar, and we do, we would put it in
another place, and we have," Dykes told the New York
gathering of investors and analysts, when asked how BellSouth will
stack up against AT&T/SBC and MCI/Verizon, if those mergers
proceed as planned. "From our perspective, it is better to
have rented those assets than to have owned them. That has been
our direction and that will be our direction for a while."
The shift from switched networks, which are centrally
controlled, to IP networks with more distributed intelligence has
changed the industry dynamic, said Dykes, who spent much of his
presentation focused on Cingular Wireless and how it has
contributed to BellSouth's bottom line.
"The announced industry consolidation in the enterprise
space should be a positive for the segment, particularly with the
overcapacity that exists today," Dykes said. "The
fundamentals of the enterprise market--with the transition to IP,
large companies are moving network intelligence from core of
switched network to edge of IP network" guarantee that future
networks will be "simpler, faster and much less
expensive."
BellSouth currently derives 7% to 8% of its revenues from large
enterprise customers and doesn't expect that to slip, he added.
Over the next three years, BellSouth will use its cash flow to
pay down half of the $6 billion it borrowed to enable Cingular to
buy AT&T Wireless and will invest in making the wireless
company it jointly owns with SBC Communications "an industry
leading" operation with lower churn, higher customer
satisfaction and a new UMTS network. Cingular should also see
higher margins as the benefits of the merger kick in, he added.
The company won't have to dramatically invest in its wireline
network even if it begins to offer IPTV, Dykes said.
"Nearly half of our customers are served with short copper
loops--5000 feet or less," he said. "We will get to 80%
over the next three year without material change to capex. We are
not looking to ratchet up to finish that project. If we elect to
go into the IPTV business, there will be a modest investment
around that, but we already have the network to support
that."
BellSouth isn't looking to unload its rural access lines, Dykes
said. It is expecting continued attrition in the access line
business, but primarily because of wireless replacement, not voice
over IP.
The company doesn't have a commercial VoIP product for
consumers and won't introduce one unless "it becomes the
buzz," he said. If the real competition is just about
lower-cost phone service, BellSouth can compete on price using its
existing facilities, Dykes said. He also highlighted BellSouth's
ability to continue lowering its costs on the wireline side,
saying that in its last labor negotiations, the company retained
"extreme flexibility when it comes to adjusting our labor
force to the market demands. Not that it's a pleasant thing to go
through," said Dykes.
Asked how BellSouth will invest its expected free cash flow
after the three-year period he described, Dykes jokingly admitted
that, "I don't know what the hell we are going to do with
that money."
He agreed with analysts who said the current year is likely to
be something of a high point for cash flow, in part because, with
the end of UNE-P sales, BellSouth will receive more income from
its unbundled network element sales under commercial agreements it
has signed with competitive carriers, and the company won't yet
have lost significant customers to cable VoIP efforts.